Sunday, November 8, 2009

Radio: Drawn and Third Quartered

All hail the genius that believes he’s the smartest man in any room, Cumulus CEO Lew Dickey.

He’s one of a few broadcast CEOs that were spinning their companies’ third quarter results this past week.


Yes, it’s time again for another swirl of misinformation and panic.


So many disasters, so little space. I’ll do my best.


Lew Dickey believes that every time he speaks, he learns something new.


The smartest man believes that every time he reads one of his quotes in a trade, he gains even more insight into his own mind, which he’ll let you know is such a fine mind.


He'll also remind you at least once during conversation that it’s also a Harvard University educated mind.


He has an insatiable obsession to brag of his intellect with the masses, and the smartest man in any room actually looks forward to delivering his spin to his quarterly conference call to analysts.


It gives him a break from seeding future fiascos.


So what is the eminent brainiac of broadcasting ready to impart to us mere mortals?


How about wrong is the new right and smoke and mirrors are the new transparency.


Let’s listen in on how Lew weasels his way in and out of Cumulus’ third quarter.


It’s almost apocryphal. And Lew doesn’t even have to look that word up.


“Larger markets appear to be gaining revenue traction,” sayeth the Lewdick. He reached that conclusion since revenue at the Cumulus Media Partner markets, which include Dallas, Houston, Atlanta and San Francisco, was down an average -15.9% for Q3. His small and medium markets, which Lew used to call the “bread-and-butter” cities of Cumulus Media took an -18.5 percent plunk.


“We have to do a better job of selling our industry, selling the true value of it.”


Here’s one problem with Lew. He assumes we’re almost as smart as he is so he never gets around to explaining exactly what that true value is.


Some of Dickey’s new-speak reads like it was lifted right out of a late nineties dot.com bomb business plan.


For example, he said Cumulus believes in “sustainable operations” in 2010 and beyond by “employing state-of-the-art technology to run the enterprise and drive productivity.”


Maybe Lew was talking up the spy videophones he had installed at most of his stations to keep an eye and ear on his salespeople?


At least that’s what I think he was pontificating about since he followed that line by a claim that Cumulus hired fifty - count ‘em - fifty new sales people in just the last six weeks alone.


He also plans to hire another fifty by the end of the year - though he neglected to mention that the next fifty will be replacing the fifty he just hired over the last six weeks when they don’t work out.


Okay, Lew. Let’s do the numbers. What say you?


“Our industry revenues peaked in 2006 at $21.5 billion. So, in 2006 radio was a $21.5 billion industry – and this year revenues are forecast to finish around $15.5 billion, a decline of $6 billion. We believe it could be – from peak to trough back to peak again – it could be 10 years, maybe 2016 before we reach $21.5 billion again.”


What’s it going to, Lew? 2016 or 2019? Or will 2012 be your apocalypse?


Back to Lew.


'We definitely believe the industry is going to come out of this cycle and continue to grow, but it’s going to be quite some time before we reach the 2006 level. So, more than ever before we believe efficiency is becoming the greatest source of competitive advantage in our business today.”


That all well and good, Lew. But what about all the people you’ve already fired? How do you run a business when you’ve lost or fired most of your best executives and you’re stuck inside a downtrend with a skeleton crew?


“It’s not about cutting bodies, but rather it’s about resource allocation, systems and customer-focused solutions.”


Okay, Lew, enough of the b.s. Let’s do your numbers now.


I’ll spare you his well-placed gobbledygook and get down to business.


Lew successfully sidestepped providing analysts and investors on the conference call with specific dollar figures for its fourth quarter guidance - but insisted that he was budgeting for positive revenue growth in 2010.


Let’s stop here for a moment.


Could you imagine what Lew would’ve done to any sales manager that failed to provide specific sales figures for the next quarter within a nano-second of being asked?


Here’s how Dickey did it. He “expected” to improve on both revenue and the EBITDA performance posted for third quarter, which he released a few hours before the call.


He called it “improvement.” The third quarter revenues were down from a year ago - but they weren’t as bad as the second quarter. Put another way. Q2 was -21.1 percent down. Q3 was only a “mere” -18.5 percent down. And that was directly due to his elimination of human stink at his facilities over the last few months. Need proof? Dickey’s operating expenses dropped 20.9 percent.


Cumulus Media also landed an income tax benefit of $27.2 million in the third quarter. A year ago, it had an income tax expense of $7.3 million.


He added that, “Further consolidation is going to be essential to improving the overall fundamentals of the industry."


Only the smartest man in any room would want to acquire even more radio stations when he can’t even preserve what he already has.


Excuses, excuses. When it comes to answering a question, Lew, despite his Harvard education, is a man of few words - repeated over and over and over again.


You’re Lew Dickey, you’ve been there, done that, and really, what will it all amount to in the end?


Now, let’s quickly move to CBS, where the news was not too bad being the new incredible. Revenue dropped a mere one percent.


Good news first. TV’s doing well - both network and syndication - to show a 9 percent increase. Radio? Well, would you believe a -19 percent drop? That translates to a fall from $392.5 million to $318.9 mil.


CBS Radio operating income was $41.1 million, which included an impairment charge of $31.7 million for station divestures; in particular, the Portland, Oregon stations sold to Larry Wilson.


Though CBS CEO Les Moonves alleged that he planned to keep radio as part of CBS’s portfolio, he was barely believable. Would you be if you had Dan Mason running your stations and running out of excuses?


They don’t make radio CEOs like Dan Mason anymore. Then again, the world he occupied simply doesn’t exist anymore.


Now, let’s touch upon the “not really a radio company” radio company, Sirius XM. Their revenue was up $630 million - a 3 percent increase over a year ago. Its subscriber base was down 2 percent from a year ago, but up by 102,295 subscribers. Mel Karmazin didn’t say why - but I will. Three words: Cash for clunkers.


Mel’s creative financing also made their “material” payments due disappear until 2011. How does Mel do it?


“We expect the company’s cash flow growth momentum to continue into 2010,” sayeth the King of Karma. “And we project full-year adjusted income from operations to increase approximately 20 percent next year.”


Mel also told the Street he expects revenue growth in the “mid to high single digits” and free cash flow growth.


And how about that? Mel’s the only radio guy being taken seriously by Wall Street.


In keeping with bad is the new good; Salem’s 11 percent tumble in Q3 was nothing short of a Godsend, so to speak.


True, it would've been a lot worse had the saints at Salem not bartered most of their stations up the tokus with religious programming.


Salem. I feel for you. Seems like only yesterday that you could conjure up even a C-list of right wing zealots for a talk show network and make it work. Alas, their audience is getting long in the tooth, and harder to sell; especially when so many of them have turned into survivalists. You know that survivalists don’t listen to the radio because they’re convinced they’re all implanted with microchips and they're listening to them.


Then you have Christian Hot AC. The Fish format programmers are just figuring out that when all of your music sounds the same, the entire format fries.


Their Fish and Foul talkers revenue fell from $47.4 million to $42 mil.


Sale hoped to find some divine revenue intervention with new media - like TownHall.org - but that site has been renamed Defendmyvote.com, an inactive site, which is being maintained in the interim by GoDaddy, where you can watch their host’s “Too Hot for TV” spots. OMG! Still, some of the other sites are still on-line but their revenue slipped from $7.1 million to $6.9 mil.


Salem also took a $14.1 impairment charge on the value of radio licenses in Dallas, Atlanta, Detroit, and Portland Oregon, and its still playing the waiting game on selling WRFD, a AM in Columbus, Ohio to another conservative group, Christian Voice of Central Ohio for a whopping $4 mil. Will it ever close? God only knows.


Come on, now. Admit it. If you’re in radio - either in sales or programming - do you really believe you could get away with offering the same lame excuses your CEOs offered to Wall Street last week?


I’m calling it radio noir. There are those unable to change with the times. So the changing times roll over them.


The past decade of unrestrained consolidation led to an arduous crusade of cost reductions, as well as departures of key long-time creative executives. Sure, Dickey, Mays, Mason, and the usual suspects can aver new hires - but it’s obvious that the loss of institutional knowledge has crippled the industry.


In the go-go buy-sell days of the late nineties, few mega-chains even considered a plan B. Now, it faces an uphill battle to define to both listeners and clients what radio is - and will be - in the 21st century.


Instead of being mired in its own mediocrity, radio needs to concentrate its efforts on where it can win and contain its losses.


There are so many radio CEOs that are chasing something they couldn’t hold on to even if they caught it. Some part of them realizes the vainness of this chase even as another part clings to the need for it.


For the next quarterly report, I suggest that Lew Dickey allow other radio CEOs to share his videophone - and instead of another mumbo jumbo of words and figures, show a Road Runner cartoon. Fast forward to the end where Wile E. Coyote takes a flying leap of a cliff, followed by a rising cloud of dust.

----

A 1981 investigative report into radio station exclusives

33 comments:

Anonymous said...

Lew Dickey is the epitome of 'do as I say, not as I do,' with one extra added ingredient. When you do as he says, he will fire you anyway because it was the wrong decision. How can it be wrong if the orders came from Lew? Don't confuse him with the facts. Cumulus is giving Clear Channel a run for the 'worst radio chain'. John Hogan does not pretend to be smart or know better. He can always blame Bain Capitol and THL Partners. Dickey can only blame himself but he won't so he will blame his managers instead. What a way to run a company into the ground.

Anonymous said...

Lew missed his calling. He should have been a stand up comic. His one liners can't be beat. I think he should deliver his Q4 report from the Harvard Lampoon.

Anonymous said...

"He'll also remind you at least once during conversation that it’s also a Harvard University educated mind."

Bet Bob Struble does the same thing? Oh, but Struble is a Harvard MBA Baker Scholar! I guess shitballs stick together - LOL!

"Now, let’s quickly move to CBS, where the news was not too bad being the new incredible. Revenue dropped a mere one percent."

Watch out CBS Radio - Pandora is about to kick your ass online, and in-dash:

"Pandora nearly beats CBS in Online Radio"

http://www.hear2.com/

CBS - your shitball 880 AM is jamming my reception of 870 WWL!

Anonymous said...

Wall Street speaks the same bullcrap as Dickey, Mason, Suleman, Mays, et al. It is easy enough to manipulate the stock at given times to pocket a few bucks and keep the ball rolling through the lean times. Eventually it will catch up to them. Radio is fast becoming obsolete. As the younger generation gets older and the even younger generation does not even use radio in any manner the house of cards will collapse. The only option is to get more real players like Larry Wilson back in the game. The only hope of survival is a combo of seasoned broadcasters mentoring the next generation to take the medium to its next levels.

Anonymous said...

Lee Iacocca used to say "You can't save your way to prosperity" but that doesn't stop Lew from trying.

But then, Iacocca didn't go to Harvard; just Lehigh University and some place called "Princeton".

Anonymous said...

I have worked with a number of Ivy League grads. Only one ever openly bragged about it and he happened to be the most insecure individual I ever worked with. He was prone to panic attacks and paranoia. Dickey sounds like one of those guys. He probably feels the pressure of ruining the family business too. They will always blame others for their own mistakes and live in a Hell they created for themselves. Lew, Xanex. Call your shrink.

Anonymous said...

You are right. Excuses, excuses. Sales managers get beaten up daily. Creating relationships isn't considered important. Yet here we have the radio CEOs bullshitting their asses off. What a sick industry. Sick not because there aren't talented people. Sick because the untalented are running the companies. Believe me. Dan Mason is as clueless as Dickey and Suleman. He must have pictures.

Anonymous said...

Lew is one sick meglomaniac. Does he forget that it was his father that built the company? Lew will be known as the one that destroyed it when he bought Susquehanna and ruined what was once a great company. There is a special place in hell for people like Lew. Wonder how he feels having a suicide occur directly under his watch?

Anonymous said...

I cannot for the life of me figure out why anyone has not flagged these radio CEOS for their blatant lies and exaggerations. It's two different worlds. The ones the radio CEOs inhabit and the one the rest of us live in. How can Wall Street be that foolish not to detect the blatant bullshit the radio groups are laying on investors. When radio falls, it will crumble. I don't think this industry is worth saving. All the good people are long gone. These people are pure snake oil salesmen.

Anonymous said...

"I have worked with a number of Ivy League grads. Only one ever openly bragged about it and he happened to be the most insecure individual I ever worked with. He was prone to panic attacks and paranoia. Dickey sounds like one of those guys."

Well, Bob Struble admitted on Twitter that he drove DUI on Ambien, and even made light of it:

"slept well but got off the redeye with lingering ambien effects. dont remember the drive home much. auditioning for the kennedy clan..."

http://twitter.com/rjstruble/status/2425449691

On-going problem? Watch out for that Hyundai Genesis near Columbia, MD. If you notice a problem, call the Howard County Police.

Anonymous said...

"Wall Street speaks the same bullcrap as Dickey, Mason, Suleman, Mays, et al. It is easy enough to manipulate the stock at given times to pocket a few bucks and keep the ball rolling through the lean times."

"Robert Struble Channels Lee DeForest"

"iBiquity's President and CEO, Robert Struble, has taken to tweeting. In early September, he revealed he'd taken the train to Wall Street to float the notion of taking iBiquity public: 'Good NYC trip. Wall St way more upbeat than recently. IPO pipeline better, but most think [stock market] rally was too fast'... Here's where the history lesson comes in. In the early 20th century, Lee DeForest, inventor of the 'audion' tube spent a portion of his early career engaged with unscrupulous businessmen in the practice of 'pumping and dumping' stock in radio companies featuring his invention. Partly because DeForest wasn't exactly sure how his invention worked, and partly because the regulatory paradigm of broadcasting hadn't been firmly established yet, many of his ventures failed, and DeForest spent much of his life engaged in patent lawsuits (although he was acquitted of stock fraud, his business partners weren't). One might say the same about Bob Struble and iBiquity. Although HD Radio is 'workable,' it doesn't work well, and even broadcasters don't fully understand how to implement the technology. Given the wobbly future of the HD Radio protocol, it is not far-fetched to see a historical parallel between Struble and DeForest."

http://www.diymedia.net/archive/1009.htm#101709

Do you mean like this?

Anonymous said...

You didn't mention Farid Suleman's disaster? Are you saving that for another time? You must be convinced that Suleman is going to lose that company. I agree with one of your prior posts that if Citadel goes down, others will quickly follow because propping them up will no longer matter. Wonder when a good time will be to pull out of these suckers before the stock tumbles?

Anonymous said...

I am no Mel Karmazin fan. He turned CBS into a wasteland. I worked for him. Man could not even say thank you when we exceeded budget. Took all the money out, put nothing back. However I am glad to see him sticking it to his former brethren in terrestrial radio. Mel knew when to hold and when to fold. The others followed Mel's lead and went off the Wile E. Coyote cliff (great visual, John). I see that Citadel is close to folding. Personally I cannot wait to see those slimeballs at Salem fold. What a disgusting group of people hiding behind the name of God.

Anonymous said...

John, I hope you are among those that return to radio when the current owners fail & stations are put up for sale. I would be curious in how you would turn around radio today? I know you don't believe in HD radio. I did, once, but realized that it is a flawed technology and my feeling is that if you cannot get it on a smart phone you won't be listening to it. I think terrestrial radios serve as a ready-made receiver which will give it an advantage over internet only stations though I also believe that there will be parity between the two just like free TV and cable. The future will be interesting when the Dickeys and other CEOs and their companies are out of the way.

Anonymous said...

Dickey is a banana republic style dictator. He stocked his public board in his favor. His bizarre practices of flying in markets just to fire someone and monitor sales calls via a videophone shows his megalomania. This is clearly one man who should not be running a company no matter what education he may have and brag about. He never learned decency and common sense. He never spent a moment reading Dale Carnegie. I know Citadel is about to go into Chapter 11. Cumulus cannot be far behind with this lunatic in charge.

Anonymous said...

I hope today's blog gets e-mailed around to all the right people. Investors need to read this. Clients need to read this. Potential buyers and sellers need to read this. Very enlightening, honest and direct.

I do not believe radio is dead and buried. There is a future to work forward to.

Anonymous said...

Hey John You don't know how right you are. I will bet anyone willing to wager that the next 50 account executives Dickey hires are replacements for the 50 he just hired. That is the business plan for Cumulus. Dickey thinks he is in the media business. He is in the revolving door business. What he does not understand is the quality levels will continue to drop with each hire and fire. Who will want to work for that self centered idiot except those who cannot find another place to work. It used to be Clear Channel was at the bottom rung of where you would want to work. Give Lew Dickey credit. He outdid the Mays family.

Anonymous said...

"Personally I cannot wait to see those slimeballs at Salem fold. What a disgusting group of people hiding behind the name of God."

Amen to that, brother. Ed Atsinger and Joe Davis are names nobody ever mentions when talking about executives who have laid waste to their companies, but they are just as bad as any of the companies regularly mentioned on this blog.

Their stations have been shells for a long time--a few programming people who know how to dub Reverend Bob's Sunday sermon into the Enco.

But the slimy feeling comes from watching this group make every effort to extract money from people on false pretenses. What do I mean? How about running charity donation campaigns where 50% (or MORE) of the money raised goes to the station as a "marketing fee"? I've seen money splits as high as 80/20 in the station's favor.

This money comes not from advertising--it comes from Christian people who truly believe they are donating to those in need. I have never heard of Clear Channel, Citadel, Cumulus, or Radio One trying to milk their listeners like this.

Stu Epperson is a good man, but too old to run the company. His brother-in-law (Ed) is a cold bastard POS who has taken the company from dollars to pennies in worth--and should be just as fired as Hogan, Dickey, Suleman, Smythe, and the others.

Anonymous said...

Lew Dick fails to understand that radio has its own "public option:" turning off the radio. That is what listeners have been doing for the past decade IN DROVES. For every "research study" that says radio listening is doing well there are dozens to dispute that lie. How many people do you know listen to radio or if they still do have a favorite radio station?

Radio sells time based on the popularity of the format. The formatics were put on the backburner and homogenized and pasteurized. That is why people do not listen to the radio. It is not because iPods and streaming audio "stole" them away.

Until the radio CEOs come to grips with reality they will just keep handing more audience over to alternative devices.

Radio loses the war with only one self inflicted shot fired.

Anonymous said...

Ed Astinger is an evil coward.

Salem is just another right wing money making machine hiding behind the name of God.

Anonymous said...

your fire sale sceneario makes more sense every day. i cannot see the banks keeping farid suleman. he got them into chapter 11 w/eyes bigger than his brain.

it makes sense to cut losses, put stations on the block and hope for the best. larry wilson buying those cbs portland stations had to help tho he bought those w//his own money.

if credit does loosen up a fire sale will be the best way for lenders to get out from under these toxic radio stations.

Anonymous said...

Nice highlights, John. It's definitely a bad quarter. But you're not the only one who's been reading the tea leaves in this industry for a lot of years. So I'll give you three predictions from an old radio guy:

- Salem revenues will be off for another quarter at most, and then start rebounding. The rebound may actually come in Q4. Salem has some of the slickest accountants around. They're working hard at coming up with a balance sheet recovery scenario, real or not, and they'll get it done. Brace yourself for the happy talk.

- In the next year, Clear Channel will ACQUIRE one of these miserable groups. And it may be more than one. These guys are money guys, and they're playing with someone else's dough. With that scenario, there's only one move that will appeal to them: double down. It's what you do if you've got more balls than brains.

- Sirius will be sold within a year (announced if not closed). This one I haven't done the numbers on, so it's a bit of a guess on my part. But Mel is riding a happy wave right now and this country is awash in cheap cash looking for a home. Mel's money guys are antsy and not interested in his long-term scenarios. A bird in the hand,,,

So I'd be curious to know if you agree. That's where I see a few things headed.

Anonymous said...

My predictions.

1. Agree on Salem. They will find a way to survive.
Reason: God is good business.

2. I think Clear Channel as a company is history in 12-18 months.
Reason: BC and THL got snookered by the Mays family and knows it.

3. If Howard Stern renews, Mel stays. If not, Mel leaves. Sirius XM gets sold or folds. Bet on the former.
Reason: Don Buchwald and Mel karmazan are partners with Howard. It was no accident that Howard went to Sirius and suddenly Mel showed up.

Another old radio vet, recently retired

Anonymous said...

Lew Dickey is a sickie. Institutional!

Moonves is a smart guy with TV. He has to see through Mason by now. Radio is a drag on the numbers & with exception to the top 10-15 is it really worth having it in the CBS portfolio. They bring nothing to the table. I think Moonves will get rid of Mason once he id's a replacement if he hasn't already. I would still look for him to dump radio at the right time.

Salem will have to rethink its strategy. I don't think they are in the same boat with most of the other chains. Whoever said God is business is right. I think they have to reinvent the Fish and quickly. New name, maybe a mix of safe mainstream AC with Christian contemporary.

Talk could be paired down. Just syndicate the biggest names.

danni said...

"1. Agree on Salem. They will find a way to survive.
Reason: God is good business."

God is good business, but no longer in the business of good.

Sad really, and a true epitaph for Christianity.

Anonymous said...

Radio sales could decline even further when IBOC HD gets a power increase to trash analog signals really badly. Bye-bye audience!

Anonymous said...

"Radio sales could decline even further when IBOC HD gets a power increase to trash analog signals really badly. Bye-bye audience!"

Yup! Struble is hoping consumers will rush out and buy HD radios, after the power increase, in order to force HD Radio adoption. I wondering how many commercial and NPR execs have a financial interest in iNiquity? If Struble get his IPO through Price Waterhouse Coopers, these con-artists will walk away, never to look back at the destruction left behind.

Anonymous said...

Too bad it's not a radio company. At first I thought the tide may be turning.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091111/ap_on_bi_ge/us_sirius_xm_credit_rating_1

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