Monday, July 6, 2009

Radio: Paralysis by analysis


If everyone’s a research expert there are no research experts.

Traditional media, radio included, suffer from a severe case of paralysis by analysis.

If one research study shows radio time spent listening down, counter it with another study that “proves” radio’s reach and frequency continues to expand.

It’s the path of least resistance. Most gravitate and believe research that tells us what we want to see and hear.

It’s called believing your own hype – and it’s lethal.

It’s why many conservative talk show hosts are successful. The converted love being preached to.

That’s where the research business has gone south. No one wants to be proven wrong.

Research loses credibility when it stops asking the right questions at the request of its clients.

There are few things easier to do than manipulate research results. Just ask misleading questions and avoid those too obvious or controversial.

It’s so uncomplicated to generate an eye-opening, smack-you-across-the-face research study to make one believe it’s essential that the consultant or research organization that did it be hired to save the business.

Radio confuses what it wants with what is probable and when in doubt it goes for mystification, not perfection.

These researchers don’t care about the facts. It’s just like guilt is not as common as most people believe. Killers and radio researchers probably laugh as much as anyone else.

I used to enjoy going to industry conventions and gatherings where you’d actually leave with more knowledge than you had when you arrived. It’s not like that anymore. Over the summer, we’ll have a few of those warm-up gatherings like the Conclave that’ll take your time and money, leading up to the big shebang NAB Radio Show convo in September. The usual suspect researchers and consultants will once again team up to present their latest research “findings” for radio. Let me predict. They’re going to tell you what you want to know and what they want you to believe. I didn’t say they’d be factual.

The radio industry purged nearly all programmers, managers, and even CEOs that achieved success with a dose of their gut instincts. There are chains where those challenging on-hand research are considered precarious and insubordinate – even if it’s old, dated, or from another market.

I have another word for these guts and glory programmers and managers. Futurists. They possess the skill to connect dots that haven’t been connected yet and they’ll often go against the grain of traditional research.

Not all industries dislike futurists. The Silicon Valley nurtures them. Steve Jobs locks them up in a room and says, “Create something! Create anything!"

You can’t measure futurist gut and instinct with research. The latter deals with what already was - not what is to be. Gut decisions are supported by running proposals and objectives by those you’ve surrounded yourself with – your colleagues, mentors, and support staff. Gut is measured with competitors and reality checks. Instinct is derived from your knowledge, passion, and – of equal importance – pride of product.

Researchers are terrified of them. Futurists use research as a map – not the end-all. They reference research like MapQuest – making sure they don’t miss a twist or a turn on the way to their destination.

Misleading research also damages the reputation of the radio industry. Take last week’s Media Post headline: Radio Tops with Teens.

Now, read this line circumspectly: Nielsen found that 16% of teenagers around the world consider radio their "primary source" of music, with another 21% identifying it as a "secondary source" of music. But the numbers lag far behind MP3 players -- identified by 39% of teenagers as a primary source of music -- and computers, preferred by 33% of teens.

Around the world. Catch that?

Looking for teens listening to the radio in the U.S.? Try low-income families. Those that cannot afford other means of music delivery have no choice other than free terrestrial radio. They can’t afford an iPod, iPhone or some reasonable facsimile. Prove me wrong.

Who did the research for the NAB and RAB's lame Radio Heard Here campaign? Is there even one person gullible enough to fall for these new promos?

You’ve heard the latest NAB joke, right? There are radios in the heaven of the NAB but no NAB in the heaven of radio.

Who came up with the research that HD Radio on the new model Microsoft Zune will break that medium to the masses? Do you know anyone that owns a Zune?

The headline in yesterday’s on-line daily Ad Age said it best: Jackson's Death Marks Turning Point for Media Players. Radio didn’t deliver the news – or even advance rumors. It broke on TMZ.com and spread on Twitter. By the time radio got around it – that is, figuring out what format to carry the breaking story on and how to interrupt the voice-tracking – it was old news.

It comes down to this. Radio-oriented research has become so tainted and so implausible that it’s not taken seriously by anyone other than those in the industry that want to believe in the improbable.

If radio’s so brilliant why are a half dozen, maybe more, chains in a budgetary black hole and thisclose to bankruptcy?

Maybe the radio researchers are banking on the old saying that even liars, thieves, bankers, politicians, and whores become respectable if they stick around long enough.
----

39 comments:

Anonymous said...

Radio got killed when groups started sharing market research to another. What works in one city may not work in another. I have had focus groups, auditorium tests and call out from other markets forced on me and told to play recurrents and gold that were never played as currents in this market. The cume never recovered. Thank you, Lew.

Anonymous said...

I don't want to give away my market or company. Our company owned our research firm and they constantly used respondents from other markets to complete our market research. It was bullshit. We could have done better ourselves without their half assed flawed research.

HD Radio Farce said...

John,

Glad you mentioned HD Radio, again, especially now, since the disastrous FM-HD power increase is looming. Unbranded HD Radio portables are also due, in order for Struble to justify the power increase.

I just finished emailing Sunder Velamuri of Siport over, what I believe, are dubious claims about the power consumption of the the "new" HD Radio chipsets. The jist of it is that Struble claimed, at CES 2008, that Samsung's and Siport's HD Radio chipsets would reduce power consumption from 3.3 watts to under 200mW - a 1500% decrease! Here is a copy of a Confidental document posted on Siport's homepage:

"SP1010 Features"

"Single 3.3V operation with on-chip DC-DC converters thus eliminating the need for external voltage regulators. Total power dissipation of 110 mW in HD Radio Playback."

http://tinyurl.com/nbv9df

Of course, the 110mw is for HD Radio Playback Mode, only, not for transceiver-mode. Siport showed off this same chipset way back at the NAB Show 2007, claiming 110mw two years ago. Here is Sunder's response to an email that I just sent, that is not marked confidental:

"I have seen some of your postings on the net which were critical of HD Radio, iBiquity as well as very skeptical of SiPort marketing messages. I am not prepared to debate you on the merits or demerits of HD Radio or iBiquity. I can assure you that SiPort provides the complete HD Radio solution (receiving RF, demodulation, HD decode) while dissipating 100 mW. You may have noticed that Microsoft Zune announced the inclusion of HD Radio on their next generation Zune platform. You will have mobile HD Radios available in the market very soon."

Best regards,
Sunder Velamuri

Of course, I just mentioned the power consumption, and was not looking for any sort of "debate". And, of course, he never really answered my question, directly.

Bruce said...

You make points that should be so obvious to people trying to make radio relevant once again. Is it going to take major companies selling off frequencies to entrepreneurs for some real life to return to the medium?

Anonymous said...

I'm fortunate to have grown up listening to terrestrial radio in the 70s and 80s when the PD actually listened to songs and then, using gut instinct and good ears, added songs to the playlists. No overpaid, out-of-town suits were necessary.

Anonymous said...

Great blog, John. Well said.
Richard Sands

Anonymous said...

Good points, John. But you need to add into the analysis that it's not just that people in the business are stupid (though there certainly are a few of those). They're mainly afraid.

I date back to the days of locally programmed radio. I have always been on the sales side, but I can remember program directors, GMs, jocks and news directors all having long and spirited debates about what went on the air. That will let you know how old I am, but I was always impressed by the level of thought and discussion that went into the debate and I even carried some of that discussion out to clients to let them know why we were doing what we were doing and how it benefited them.

I shot a note to an old friend the other day who's hiding out in management at one of the chains. (It's one that you have occasionally taken shots at.) He's got two guaranteed money losers in his group, and he's constantly complaining about how he can't make them perform.

So I suggested he set up a lab. Take one of the most talented programming prospects he's got, along with some of the young sales guys who are totally fired up but can't get a hold in the bigger markets, and turn a station over to them for three to six months with the challenge to figure out what the local listeners want and give it to them. From what he tells me, they couldn't do much worse than what he's doing now.

What could he possibly lose? His answer was simple: His Job. The stations are free to fail. As long as he's implementing what's given to him from the top, no one will take his head off. They'll bitch, but the only way he loses his job is if the company totally breaks up. But challenge the guys at the top, and he's immediately out on a limb. If he tries something experimental and it fails, he's toast. And if his experiment succeeds, he's still toast because all the guys currently invested in preserving the status quo will have the knives out for him.

It truly is a no-win world in radio right now.

Anonymous said...

As I was told. We are not paid to think, we are paid to "do". Then they wonder why their research took them to new lows. I wonder how many national PDs, group PDs and consultants are getting a piece of the action with this research scam. I have seen research for this place that makes absolutely no sense. In another market a few years back I read a report by a well known consultant which was identical word for word to another one the same consultant did in another market. Only the call letters and a few incidentals were changed. Someone should investigate these crooks.

Anonymous said...

John

Someone had to bring this up and I am glad it is you.

Research done for our company tells them exactly what they want to see and hear.

They explain bad books and failed promotions as the fault of programming and promotion.

I hope some decision makers in the radio industry are reading this blog. They need to see this.

ejhill1925 said...

Another rousing "those were the days" post and followup comments, complete with political cheap shots and elitist comments.

Asking the question, "Do you know anyone that owns a Zune?" is akin to the late Pauline Kael of the New Yorker who lamented that it was impossible that Nixon won because nobody that she knew voted for him. Yeah, Zune sales are down but i-Pod and Sansa's sales are driven by the illegal mp3 download market.

And the shot at conservative talk radio makes no sense either unless it's just the envy talking. "Preaching to the choir?" or "Give the audience what it wants?" Oh, actually responding to the wants and needs of a sizable portion of the paying public! What a novel idea. Isn't that what you're promoting?

If anything, you should be encouraging emulating the success of conservative talk. Twenty years ago if you had told the "experts" that the biggest thing in radio was going to be Rush Limbaugh everyone would have laughed. But he was bold, different and had a message that wasn't researched to death.

Sorry boys, the Buzzard is dead. It's gone the way of the blacksmith and the Super Chief Pullman sleeper.

Anonymous said...

to ej hill:

zune is a stiff. it has not sold. people voted for nixon. no numbers of significance bought zune. they have not sold. the wall st. journal called it one of the worst products of the year. are you saying that zune will not download illegal MP3s?

we know of the 'success' the radio industry has w/ hd radio. how many years has that albatross been around radio's neck?

i read an article about a research (is it real or fixed) study that conservative talk show hosts do not get listeners that do not agree with them & that all of their listening comes from those already converted. rush is the howard for the conservative set. michael savage must be their bubba the love sponge.

rush is nothing new. you can go all the way back to joe pyne or even detroit's father coughlin for that matter. ignorance attracts the ignorant.

Anonymous said...

John-one of your thought provoking best. I have been victim to bogus research from a well known consultant/researcher. He delivers research that convinces our manager he is an important part of the decision making process when he does not even know our format. I cannot disagree with him and have to kiss his ass because he could very easily replace me with one of his out of work lieutenants. Radio used to be a fun business. On a good day we had real call out research and were permitted to use our gut to read beyond it. Everything today is reaction not action. They wonder why radio is considered stale and old. Consider the source of the problem. Bogus research and consulting.

Anonymous said...

This 'nationalization' research homogenized radio. Ross on Radio mentioned how CHR playlists became nationalized with Casem and others.
This is what the major chains want. Eliminate localism. Have national everything. Even MacDonalds knows they have to provide regional menus. Not every corner of America shares the same music, demographics, ethnic make up. It is true that satellite radio is also 'national' and that is where I lose interest in it. I do not hear the music I grew up with, that I like, that is relevant to my region. Researchers love that too because they can do one research project and write it up nationally and charge stations individually. Another comment mentioned worded research studies. I have seen a lot of that coming from the 'leading' researchers and consultants.

Anonymous said...

I cannot disagree with anything you say. You covered it all. Radio has become teamed with scared rabbit managers whose only purpose in life is to tell the corporate office what they want to hear. The option is termination.

This spreads to research where it is more important to get the results they want rather than state the facts.

There are plenty of researchers and consultants that will do this. There are very very very very few that will not and many of them are now out of business.

I expect that the Conclave, the NAB and other functions will have new research studies revealed and they will be as phony as the researchers that created them.

Has anyone bothered to go back to last year's NAB and Conclave and re-analyze the research presented at those events and see how much if any of it held water over the past year?

Anonymous said...

Gorman you speak the truth. No wonder why Fred Jacobs and those Clear Channel idiots call you the antiChrist.

Anonymous said...

GORMAN GO F YOURSELF U F-ING MORON! U DONT KNOW SHIT! U & UR KIND R CRY BABYS + A-HOLES. WE DONT NEED UR BULLCRAP! UR READERS R A BUNCH OF PUSSYS WHO DONT BELONG IN RADIO!

Anonymous said...

If you want I can send you research from two different consultants that were contracted to stations I worked with and their "reports" were all boilerplate. Same verbage, same style, same results. I could see one company, the obvious one from Death City doing this but there is a second also very close to you that did the same thing. If you are interested please get in contact with me. They are two and four years old respectively. I am out of radio now so there is nothing they can do to me.

Anonymous said...

*** Maybe the radio researchers are banking on the old saying that even liars, thieves, bankers, politicians, and whores become respectable if they stick around long enough. ***

Love that line, John. I think I read it somewhere that Don Henley used it to in a similar circumstance.

Radio researchers. A step below a washed out whore. Like Fred.

EJHill said...

To the "Anonymous" who wrote:

zune is a stiff. the wall st. journal called it one of the worst products of the year.

Which year? Last fall the Journal's tech writer had very nice things to say about the Zune.

we know of the 'success' the radio industry has w/ hd radio.

Do you think HDTV would have been a success without the heavy hand of government forcing it down the public's throats? It's cost thousands of jobs on the TV side.

And finally, in your e.e. cummings way, you wrote:
i read an article about a research study that conservative talk show hosts do not get listeners that do not agree with them & that all of their listening comes from those already converted... ignorance attracts the ignorant.

That might actually say more about the folks on the left that are so closed-minded they refuse to seek out any information that conflicts with their world view. (It is impossible for anyone on the right not to get a heavy dose of the Kool-aid drinkers in the MSM.) And Rush's audience is anything but ignorant. According to the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, Limbaugh's audience is just as informed as the average NPR listener and better informed than your average CNN or MSNBC watcher. (The stupidest, in case you are wondering, watch the CBS Evening News w/Katie Couric, only 10% of whom could answer 3 simple politically based questions.) You ad hominem attacks on the intelligence of those that disagree with you says more about you than those you disagree with.

By Arbitron numbers this single man is responsible for 5.7% of all radio listening. And that's in non-drive. You should exhibit such ignorance.

Anonymous said...

"GORMAN GO F YOURSELF U F-ING MORON! U DONT KNOW SHIT! U & UR KIND R CRY BABYS + A-HOLES. WE DONT NEED UR BULLCRAP! UR READERS R A BUNCH OF PUSSYS WHO DONT BELONG IN RADIO!"

LMFAO!

Anonymous said...

You can tell who works for Jacobs Media in these comments.

Anonymous said...

"the disastrous FM-HD power increase is looming."

I don't know why they even bother. As soon as wi-fi shows up a lot in cars, they're dead meat.

Anonymous said...

Here are comments from a highly experienced IBOC engineer:

http://www.insideradio.com/article.asp?id=1402439

Anonymous said...

Research has been manipulated for decades. Remember the Research Group? Notorious. Remember Critical Mass Media when it was Jacor? They could never get enough respondents. The only thing that has changed is that there are more researchers and fewer goods one. Most will manipulate research upon request. The ad community sees right through this crap so I don't know why they continue to do it.

Anonymous said...

Been saying this for years to no avail!!! Research is good if done right......in the market you are in, not generic transplants!

MAny great points why radio is going downhill.

Advertisers want young people, with NO MONEY, I might add, yet most of them use non-terrestrial radio to get their music and info, yet we program for the younger set....DUH????

The best programmers in the business were allowed to "program" their stations and hire the best talent....now the "yes man" down the hall plugs in what the big boss wants, not letting the PD do his job with the knowledge they have developed.

Radio will never be what it was....where the personality kept listeners, not just the music. And selecting the music was based upon what people liked in that particular market....not the same cookie cutter Fried 500 in any format.

Rick Sklar and Joe McCoy were the best at programming in their day, and both lost out to corporate stupidity.

John, you hit a lot of great points and those that can't really see the writing on the wall, still have blindfolds on.

Someday soon, they too will wonder why they are all out of radio, trying to sell cars......Oh did I mention that similiar ignornace happened in the auto industry.....
GIVE THE LISTENERS WHAT THEY WANT!!! Ask them, don't "think" you know what they want.....go and personally research YOUR local audience to find out what they will listen too.

Lots of similarities between the Radio Industry and the Automotive Industry.....
Corporate greed and stupidity!

When will they learn.....
BAILOUT anyone?

Anonymous said...

Um, no one gets "a piece of the action" from a research project except the research company itself.

Anonymous said...

"GORMAN GO F YOURSELF U F-ING MORON! U DONT KNOW SHIT! U & UR KIND R CRY BABYS + A-HOLES. WE DONT NEED UR BULLCRAP! UR READERS R A BUNCH OF PUSSYS WHO DONT BELONG IN RADIO!"

Please turn your "Caps Lock" button off. And take your soapbox and profanity somewhere else while you're at it. Thank you.

Anonymous said...

Wouldn't you love to know where this clown works? With his mouth, I'm guessing he's a former washed-up Ben Homel protege! He also probably idolized Carl Wagner from the former Taft "empire"!

Anonymous said...

That clown is the CEO of Clear Channel Radio.....AMEN.

His stupidity just keeps on repeating itself.......maybe he voicetracked his response.
:)

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