Thursday, January 31, 2008

Radio: How many people did it take to write that Clear Channel memo?

A camel is a horse designed by committee.

Question - How many people does it take to write a John Hogan memo?

Matthew Karnitschnig, a Wall Street Journal blogger, revealed that last Friday’s John Hogan “I-can’t-believe-he-wrote-this” memo was essentially penned by a committee of “experts” dispatched to San Antonio from the Boston headquarters of BainCapital.

According to Karnitschnig, “waves of panic that Clear Channel was in trouble and its $19 billion buyout in jeopardy” spread through BainCapital last week, which triggered them to “dispatch a large team of consultants and other experts to San Antonio to help run the business.”

It was their eleventh-hour attempt to salvage this degenerating deal.

We don’t know the exact number of ghost writers involved – but Karnitschnig learned that “members of the (BainCapital) team even helped draft Hogan’s memo and endorse it.”

I’ll say it again. You can’t make this stuff up.

BainCapital finally determined what’s amiss at Clear Channel. There is no valid leadership in San Antonio. It’s a company of over-privileged siblings that set up an organization of empty suits answering to the golden parachute wearing ex-Jacor frat boys.

When BainCapital opened the books it revealed the enormous sums of money and time wasted with HD Radio conversion – at $100K per station - and the other Clear Channel side projects, many since abandoned, all of which helped give the radio industry its bad name.

But let's not overestimate BainCapital. They don't know the difference between Clear Channel and Rubbermaid or Mr. Coffee.

You can’t move it to Shanghai, Chongqing or Hangzhou and have your voice-tracking done in Bangalore.

Efficiency is one thing. Amputation is another.

You can’t cut something that has nothing left to cut.

Radio has to be revalued.

If radio doesn’t find solutions instead of more problems, all of those radio-is-dead prophets of doom will be proven right.

What’s Clear Channel – thisclose to being terminal - really worth? Somewhere in teens.

Here’s the message to Clear Channel. Bite the bullet now and you’ve bought time to rebuild and recover. Sell off your properties at real multiples and keep only what you can realistically run – or, better still, just get out of the business.

If you continue to delay and deceive –you’ll be history. Remember the American automobile industry in the seventies? That’s what you’re doing to radio right now.

Clear Channel put a styptic pencil to its Wall Street bleeding yesterday. It closed at $29.16 but the downward spiral will continue. There’s no bargain here. Not even close.

Wall Street is wise to radio’s highly inflated prices.

The younger demos working the Street see through the ruse. Ask them. They’re not listening to the radio. Not because it’s obsolete – it’s just not providing their soundtrack. Nor is it the soundtrack to anyone under 40– and I’m being benevolent.

Radio’s fast becoming entertainment for those who can’t afford iPods and other options.

There’s a difference between devalued and revalued. Devalued is what Clear Channel has already done to radio.

You want the BainCapital/Thomas H. Lee deal to die. They’d run Clear Channel like Mitt Romney would run the country.

I hate to say it but it’s not even worth the comic relief to see Mark Mays and John Hogan answering to Bain Capital in the same comportment they had their managers do to them.

68 comments:

PocketRadio said...

"When BainCapital opened the books it revealed the enormous sums of money and time wasted with HD Radio conversion – at $100K per station - and the other Clear Channel side projects, many since abandoned, all of which helped give the radio industry its bad name."

"HD signal wreaks havoc with analog radio"

"If you're having trouble lately pulling in a good signal from your favorite radio station, it's not just that your radio dates from Marconi's heyday. Radio signal interference has become a big problem in Metro Detroit since the advent of HD (high definition) broadcasting."

http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080131/OPINION03/801310429

HD Radio is now making its impression in Detroit - think that the Big 3 might notice? Ford has really gotten iself in a corner, with its agreement with iBiquity to include HD radios.

Anonymous said...

The money business is no different than any other. BainCapital bought into a flawed plan that started when one of the Mays brothers ran into an old college buddy that was in with BainCapital or Thomas H. Lee.

There is always buyers remorse. This one is a disaster no matter how you play it.

another ex-CC said...

I can hear Mark Mays saying cut anything but we need those private jets.

The real money honey said...

You left out a key component of the Wall Street blog about the United Rentals lbo: Cerberus had a team at URI headquarters for months. Then one morning in November, they didn’t show up for work, and the buyout was off.

The trip to San Antonio is almost a week old. The words no comment were spoken after that.

History repeats itself.

Anonymous said...

You are telling me that it took a committee from Bain Capital in Boston flying to San Antonio to write that memo? Did they fly first class or did one of the Mays family jets pick them up? In the meantime keep downsizing your employees and cutting budget. Bain and CC deserve each other.

Anonymous said...

Standard & Poor's has Clear Channel w/a "B+" corporate credit rating on CreditWatch with negative implications.

Anonymous said...

You didn't mention this---SEC says Highfields Capital bought 4.4 million shares of CCU for $132 million and now owns 7.7% of the company's outstanding shares.

Anonymous said...

I enjoy new technology and bought an HD radio just to find out more about it. I am hopeful that it can be successful, but I'm very, very disappointed in the results. I live in a major metro area but can only get two more FM stations besides the digital main channel and one AM station in HD at my house. I'm really sorry about spending the money for it.

Anonymous said...

is highfields trying to inflate the stock price? how close and tight is highfields to bain capital and thomas h. lee? clear channel's transparency is always so obvious. leave this b.s. to the daytraders. i agree with you. the stock is still priced way to high especially in light of that memo whose results have not been felt yet. wait until cc eliminates promotion, marketing. this is the type of company the govt. allows to own a federally licensed frequency? can't wait for the end of 2008.

SaMeAsItEveRWaz said...

You don't get the whole story with Clear Channel. They do play up their alleged attributes of Premiere and their success in the top ten markets. What they don't play up is how bad the cash flow is and that their actual audience is way down. Shares are based on the number of people listening to the radio at any given time. It could be 8 or 80,000. If you study Clear Channel's actual listener numbers they tell the true story on how their listening has declined. Spots are ineffective when stations have high cume and low AQH. There is no loyalty and maybe you can't buy around Clear Channel as they like to brag but you don't have to buy radio at all to get your message out. How many car dealers are still advertising on radio?

Anonymous said...

Could John or someone who knows Wall Street answer this one?

If BainCapital and Thomas H. Lee uncover falsified figures or reports from Clear Channel I believe they can contest and have a good chance of keeping the $500,000,000 "break up" fee from Clear Channel. I am positive I read a story about just such a case (not radio or media) where that was true.

Clear Channel works with a multi-sided fence and they are large enough and still small enough (family owned) to manipulate information.

FU LAME BRAIN said...

FU GORMAN CC IS UP OVER 30+ YOU KNOW SH!! ABOUT RADIO. GO F YOURSELF.

Anonymous said...

I hope market managers are reading your blog. They will learn a lot from it and far more than they will from their own companies. The time will change. I agree with you on that. My question is when?

PocketRadio said...

FU LAME BRAIN said...

"FU GORMAN CC IS UP OVER 30+ YOU KNOW SH!! ABOUT RADIO. GO F YOURSELF."

LMFAO(at you)!!!

"Clear Channel's murky future"

"Sad because eliminating new hires (including sellers), failing to replace those who leave, stopping all investment in the future, and halting all advertising and research is the equivalent of saying that necessity requires us to strangle the goose that lays the golden eggs, even as the goose is up for sale."

http://www.hear2.com/2008/01/clear-channels.html

Actually, CC is headed for the toilet, as most of the larger broadcasters' stocks are now down 90%, in the penny-stock range. Hope, that you are not in the radio business - I'm a cleared C++ software engineer in the Northern Virgian area, with more companies to work for, than I can choose from! Ha! Ha! CC was a leader in HD Radio, and with no investments in the future, no wonder the HD Cartel took over the position with the loser MSN Direct - you are busted, Michelle!

Anonymous said...

The funniest piece on the John Hogan and friends memo is that BainCapital agreed to or decided to cc so many managers in the chain instead of just one market manager per region. It allowed copies to free float around the internet making Clear Channel look bush league and only busted morale down a few more notches (if that is possible). If this is BainCapital's influence in Clear Channel that company is going to go from worse to unbearable. How dumb can one company be?

Anonymous said...

"Radio’s fast becoming entertainment for those who can’t afford iPods and other options."

Does it still make sense to sell advertisers on a downscale medium like radio?

Jan Forrett said...

Ooooooooooh Baby! What a rally!!!!
Up a buck forty? What a comeback. Now the BainCapital Thomas H. Lee deal can be consumated. You didn't believe Clear Channel could make such an amazing comeback in just one day. Hoooo-ray for Highfields. Cash in now. Yippie!

Jan Forrett said...

Ooooooooooh Baby! What a rally!!!!
Up a buck forty? What a comeback. Now the BainCapital Thomas H. Lee deal can be consumated. You didn't believe Clear Channel could make such an amazing comeback in just one day. Hoooo-ray for Highfields. Cash in now. Yippie!

Eddie Coyle said...

Gotta admit, guy's gotta point, there. Can't afford iPod? Go Slummin' with HD! Drop by one them packies, Dixwell Avenue, New Haven, CT, maybe Public & Prairie in South Providence, RI. Some them bars down Southie - but be careful! Getta case, Night Train wine, light up HD Stooge Radio, groove out on 'Drink Night Train - Now!' scrolling 'cross HD screen as "Get on the Night Train!" ad from 70's there, playing on HD-2.

They still pushing this HD thing there, huh? Why? Consumers blew it off long time ago, here. Okay? UK and that Germany, there just junked digital radio. No one could stand the thing. Didn't like it.

Even here, listeners figured live CD quality tapes of L.A.'s famous enema clinic to the stars sounded better'n' racket this HD thing makes, all over the radio.

More you listen, more abrasive HD sounds. Like some big fat lobster scootin' all 'round inside your ears, claws chomping on them lobes, things there what's onna bottom ears, there. Ouch! Even on-channel, that hiss! Grates! 'sa matter, these BigRadio CEO Cheaszes? Snorting so much Ether up inna jets, there they don' lissen their stations?

Can't say's I blame 'em, there. They took a beautiful palace of the mind called radio, turned it into a ghetto. Told us, 'a slummin' you will go - with StooogeRayDeeOh!'

Yeah, look gotta lotta stuff do now, here. Listnin' round ain't one, them.

Eddie Coyle*,
Down Southa Attleboro, MA

Eddie Coyle, c. 1974,
George V. Higgins

Anonymous said...

More on Highfields:

Highfields boosts Clear Channel stake
January 31, 2008: 11:12 AM EST


Jan. 31, 2008 (Thomson Financial delivered by Newstex) --

NEW YORK (AP) - Highfields Capital Management LP, the shareholder that once opposed the buyout of Clear Channel Communications Inc. (NYSE:CCU) , has raised its stake in the radio and outdoor advertising conglomerate, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Thursday.

The Boston-based investment firm reported owning 38.1 million shares, or a 7.7 percent stake. Previously, Highfields reported ownership of 31.8 million shares, representing a 6.4 percent stake in the San Antonio company.

Highfields, Clear Channel's third-largest shareholder, originally opposed a proposed $18.7 billion buyout offer by a private equity group led by Bain Capital Partners LLC and Thomas H. Lee Partners LP.

But in May, Highfields said it would vote in support of a sweetened $19.45 billion deal.

In return for Highfields' support, the private equity group agreed to assure the new entity's public shareholders equal treatment in all dividends and other distributions, as well as representation by at least two members of the board.

Clear Channel's board approved the deal once the private equity partners agreed to allow existing shareholders to own shares in the new company with the same benefits as the equity firms. Shareholders will have the option to accept cash or shares in the new entity.

Clear Channel shares rose 33 cents to $29.49 in morning trading.

Nick said...

Gorman, before you put down Clear Channel understand that they own the most successful radio syndication company in the world: Premiere.

They own and distribute Rush Limbaugh, Glenn Beck, and just signed a multi million dollar long term contract with Sean Hannity. Almost every talk radio format features Clear Channel/Premiere delivered syndicated radio shows and there is a demand for them. Clear Channel stations carry these shows on their own news and talk stations. That is reach that cannot be duplicated by any other radio syndicator. You are wrong about Clear Channel. They have a very bright and successful future ahead of them and they own the marquee names of radio today and tomorrow.

The future of radio is syndication and national programs. Local radio is over except for traffic reports and Clear Channel owns their own traffic and information company and has cut into Westwood One's Metro Traffic as top distributor of news, traffic and sports.

Add to that the fact that Clear Channel owns the top rated radio stations in New York and Los Angeles.

The future is so bright I gotta wear shades. You don't know what you are talking about. You know nothing about the radio business.

G said...

Funny thing is both Nick and John are right.

The future of radio is syndication, as Nick says. Radio is now a passive medium. Rather than going out to recruit listeners, radio now is an industry that survives by being in the right place to put ads in front of people. Basically, they're like billboard companies. If you're bored enough, you'll look at billboards. If you're bored enough, you'll listen to Rush.

But as new technologies get increasingly more user friendly and have greater reach into more cars, people will continue to leave radio behind. Why wait for traffic on the 10s when you can get it on demand?

What John is missing is that you can still make money even as the audience flees. By the time the fire sales come, I'd guess in five to 10 years, radio will be nothing but a memory to most potential listeners and there won't be enough resources to bring it back to life.

Anonymous said...

Radio syndication works for now so if your business plan is to get in and out that's fine. It is still a gamble as to when the bottom drops out since national business which makes up 100% of syndication revenue could dry up at any moment. Radio's only savior is local and how to exploit it and that is where Clear Channel will fail and other broadcast savvy operators could succeed. I agree that Clear Channel should get out of the business. They have had ten years to prove themselves and the end result is pathetic. For those of you defending Randy Michaels understand that it started with him. He set the wheels in motion and wisely got out by letting the Mays family fire him.

paul vincent zecchino said...

Radio's future lies in syndicated national programs? Isn't that what's chased off audiences for over a decade?

To what might one ascribe this lack of introspection? Terminal ennui?

Why put stock in anything Clear Channel or its fellow consolidator/HD mavens claim? Their record speaks for itself.

'Local traffic' the future, eh? C'mon, out with it. Don't they mean 'traffic texting', an old, silly HD selling point?

Think that'll win 'em back? Traffic texting? Radio Billboards? Is that what Clear Channel thinks of radio - a digital billboard with which to 'make money' off bored audiences?

In a few years, according to their dingbat prophesies, radio won't even be a billboard? Why not pull the plug now? Waiting to manipulate matters so you can sell off AM & FM freqs to cronies, now that FCC ceded our airwaves to you?

Clear Channel & cronies created the HD debacle. They dug down three feet and found rampant consumer apathy and growing disenchantment with jamming.

Rather than call it a day, admit mistakes, start anew - isn't that why they put erasers on pencils and backspace keys on laptops? - they insist on digging to oblivion.

Paul Vincent Zecchino
Manasota Key, Florida
31 January, 2008

CORRECTING GORMAN said...

SO GORMAN WHAT DOYOU HAVE TO SAY NOW THAT THE CLEAR CHANNEL STOCK IS RECOVERING. YOU KNOW ABSOLUTELY NOTHING ABOUT RADIO. NOTHING NOTHING NOTHING. F.U. THE ONLY REASON YOU PICK ON CLEAR CHANNEL IS BECAUSE YOU DON'T WORK THERE. EVERY COMPANY HAS PROBLEMS AND RADIO SUFFERS BECAUSE OF PEOPLE LIKE YOU THAT PURPOTRATE THE MYTH THAT RADIO IS OVER. I HOPE CLEAR CHANNEL GOES TO $50 BEFORE BAINCAPITAL AND THOMAS LEE TAKE OVER. THAT WAY YOU WILL LOOK LIKE A REAL A-HOLE. SCREW YOU, YOU A-HOLE. RADIO IS ALIVE AND WELL AND THE ONLY REASON WE HAVE HAD PROBLEMS IS BECAUSE OF THE ECONOMY, STUPID! F.U. GORMAN WEEP OVER CLEAR CHANNEL'S COMEBACK. MARK MAYS WILL DANCE ON YOUR GRAVE.

Mr. Answer said...

To angry Mr. Correcting Gorman:
Clear Channel’s third-largest holder is Highfields Capital from Boston. They originally rejected the Bain and Lee buyout. When they increased their offer to $39.20 per share and allow shareholders to keep 30% of the new company, Highfields ended up going along with the plan. Highfields has good reason for the deal close and that is why it put out $195 million to buy 6.3 million more shares of Clear Channel stock. Highfields will have 7.7% of the new company.
This is little more than a ruse to convince investors on the fence about Clear Channel's deal that it will go through. What hasn't been mentioned (where are you, John?) is that Kevin Martin's FCC cut a deal with Thomas Lee to allow them to continue to hold its piece of Cumulus in addition to Clear Channel. Cumulus is another chain in deep, deep trouble. If you see this as a sign of radio turning around, you need help. Being a shill for a company is one thing. Having your facts straight is another. This is another case of the FCC selling the American public down the river. John, please make mention of this.

Mr. Answer said...

To angry Mr. Correcting Gorman:
Clear Channel’s third-largest holder is Highfields Capital from Boston. They originally rejected the Bain and Lee buyout. When they increased their offer to $39.20 per share and allow shareholders to keep 30% of the new company, Highfields ended up going along with the plan. Highfields has good reason for the deal close and that is why it put out $195 million to buy 6.3 million more shares of Clear Channel stock. Highfields will have 7.7% of the new company.
This is little more than a ruse to convince investors on the fence about Clear Channel's deal that it will go through. What hasn't been mentioned (where are you, John?) is that Kevin Martin's FCC cut a deal with Thomas Lee to allow them to continue to hold its piece of Cumulus in addition to Clear Channel. Cumulus is another chain in deep, deep trouble. If you see this as a sign of radio turning around, you need help. Being a shill for a company is one thing. Having your facts straight is another. This is another case of the FCC selling the American public down the river. John, please make mention of this.

paul vincent zecchino said...

"Mr. Correcting Gorman" explains why BigRadio is finished.

Did John Gorman and Jerry DelColliano really claim 'radio is finished'? No. BigRadio is sole owner of that whopper. Surveys showed listeners preferred local stations that aired compelling content. BigRadio was nervous. What to do? Turn on the 90s spin machine. Blame the innocent. Slime the messenger. Tedious.

Mssrs. Gorman and DelColliano and many others have long said radio's future is bright, but for BigRadio dullwits' greedy-gut antics.

BigRadio consolidates, fires talent, airs dull shows and squanders millions on HD - America's first EastBLOC Jammer.

The past decade proved BigRadio's strategy is toxic. It damaged the industry and alienated listeners. Yet as big, fat gluttons in hepatic coma, BigRadio demands more.

Isn't that like saying one can only lose weight gobbling more lard pies and washing them down with gallons champagne?

Does BigRadio remind you of Mr. Creosote, Monty Python's morbidly obese glutton in "The Meaning of Life"?

After all, HD's digital vomitus is making a smelly ruination of once pristine AM and FM.

Mr. Correcting Gorman's use of large capital letters - might he have underlined as well if 'twere possible onna computer? - provides a splendid example of uncertainty. In short, shouting is no substitute for truth.

Is that why the HD gang shouts down all who dare to question this 'carny shill' called HD radio?

Paul Vincent Zecchino
Manasota Key, Florida
02 February, 2008

bobyoung said...

I recently went to Lima Perú to visit family and saw many clear channel billboards over there. I asked a friend what he though of that and the first thing that popped out of hisr mouth was: Exit Strategy.
Someone here brought up all the loudmouth blowhards Clear Channel owns who bloviate and foam at the mouth from coast to coast every day, like they were saviours for CC, haha! That kind of lousy, boring, programming along with the complete waste of money on HD which no one knows nor cares if it even exists is the reason CC is going down the crapper. Flush!!!!
Maybe after the scourge of HD is history and big comglomerates are dead will we then be able to have some decent radio again. The problem is that these insulated idiots who have a stranglehold on radio now are so far up in their ivory towers that they can't see that the methods they are using are actually forcing consumers to run as fast as they can the other way. Radio is going to have to change in a big way to become successful again. First they need to get rid of iBlock which makes 99.9% of existing radios sound like krap and is not ever going to be successful, then they have to give radio back to the communities, leave the programming to local people who know the community, what an idea!! Show the beancounters the door and get good radio people back in, another novel idea!

Anonymous said...

Premiere does not syndicate Sean Hannity. He is under a contract with Citidel/ABC.

Former CC employee said...

I'm so happy I don't work for Clear Channel anymore. I got tired of counting the number of friends who I worked with that lost their jobs in the name of cost cutting. I don't have enough fingers or toes to count them all. The building I used to work in in Providence is practically empty. Next thing, Clear Channel will probably move to a smaller building since they no longer need all that space. How sad.

crxvfr said...

Clear Channel is certainly an industry giant, nearly a monopoly in certain terms. Since their livelyhood obviously revolves around advertising revenue, I often wonder how the advent of new technologies like satellite TV and radio, Tivo, will present new challenges. Many have said, and its an obvious observation, that much of the advertising landscape is looking to the web. Recently I have been reading about, and spotting sites popping up, that would suggest this is inevitable. Do a search for Internet Audio Ads, ...for the time being, not many sites like this will populate the list of mostly radio based results. Even some newspapers have gone completely digital recently. I will be curious to see what clear channel does to acclimate to the new landscape.

PocketRadio said...

"CLEAR CHANNEL PULLS THE PLUG ON SOME HD RADIO STATIONS"

"After conducting a survey of 340 HD2 stations to determine their programming needs, the folks at Clear Channel have dumped a number of their HD 'Format Lab' stations due to a lack of demand."

http://talentfilter.blogspot.com/2008/02/clear-channel-pulls-plug-on-some-hd.html

It's almost over for HD Radio!

Online Products said...

Honestly I must say that the answer was not very surprising considering the background of such things ... Still good work sorting it out!

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Quite frankly I don't know what to say on the topic, but I recon this should have been expected given the circumstances! I mean in order to write that there shouldn't have been too many, right?

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